The start of rains in Brazil at the end of October resulted in widespread flowering. However stunted growth 

and other negative effects from the drought will impact production potential. The scale of these impacts 

differs greatly by region and even by farm and until surveys are conducted the influence on the 2015 crop 

will be hard to accurately predict.


The 2014 crop at around 47 mio bags will result in a global deficit of 6 mio bags of Brazil Arabica. This will 

be mitigated somewhat by the large surplus from the previous 2 crops.



Estimates of around 27 mio bags for 14/15 after the record large crop of 30 mio in 2013 .


The lower Vietnam crop deficit will increase the global Robusta deficit by approx. 5 mio bags the largest 

shortfall since 05/06. The current Vietnam crop is 50 % harvested and should be completed by late 

Jan/early Feb. The outlook for coffee remains positive unlike low rubber and pepper price levels .



Looks like producing the smallest crop since 07/08, as much as 30 % lower.



A modest increase to Nicaraguan and Honduran output by around 300,000 bags as the region begins to 

recover from roya, not enough to compensate for the drop in the Peruvian harvest.



Production increases should see around 4.5-5 mio bags in 14/15. Transport logistics are a limiting factor 

and will continue to create major issues again in the foreseeable future.



Crop forecasts remain at 12 mio bags for 14/15 the highest since 07/08.



Likely continued flat consumption in Europe, modest growth in the Americas and Africa, Asia will remain 

the main driver of demand. Increasing retail prices will impact use in 14/15  and uncertainty about supply 

in 2015 make it difficult to determine assumptions re growth.


Local demand is expected to be steady at around 2 %, the A$ continues to weaken offsetting the weaker 

C and consequently landed prices.