MARKET REPORT
Overview
Brazils
The start of rains in Brazil at the end of October resulted in widespread flowering. However stunted growth
and other negative effects from the drought will impact production potential. The scale of these impacts
differs greatly by region and even by farm and until surveys are conducted the influence on the 2015 crop
will be hard to accurately predict.
The 2014 crop at around 47 mio bags will result in a global deficit of 6 mio bags of Brazil Arabica. This will
be mitigated somewhat by the large surplus from the previous 2 crops.
Vietnam
Estimates of around 27 mio bags for 14/15 after the record large crop of 30 mio in 2013 .
The lower Vietnam crop deficit will increase the global Robusta deficit by approx. 5 mio bags the largest
shortfall since 05/06. The current Vietnam crop is 50 % harvested and should be completed by late
Jan/early Feb. The outlook for coffee remains positive unlike low rubber and pepper price levels .
Peru
Looks like producing the smallest crop since 07/08, as much as 30 % lower.
Centrals
A modest increase to Nicaraguan and Honduran output by around 300,000 bags as the region begins to
recover from roya, not enough to compensate for the drop in the Peruvian harvest.
Ethiopia
Production increases should see around 4.5-5 mio bags in 14/15. Transport logistics are a limiting factor
and will continue to create major issues again in the foreseeable future.
Colombia
Crop forecasts remain at 12 mio bags for 14/15 the highest since 07/08.
Demand
Likely continued flat consumption in Europe, modest growth in the Americas and Africa, Asia will remain
the main driver of demand. Increasing retail prices will impact use in 14/15 and uncertainty about supply
in 2015 make it difficult to determine assumptions re growth.
Local demand is expected to be steady at around 2 %, the A$ continues to weaken offsetting the weaker
C and consequently landed prices.