Market Report – December 2025

4. COFFEE MARKET OVERVIEW – Jan 19th

“Grounds for Growth”

• The IMF said its upcoming World Economic Outlook will likely show continued resilience to trade shocks with “fairly

strong” global growth and may revise forecasts upward again, while flagging downside risks from geopolitical

tensions. 

• The Global equity market remained buoyant as funds logged their strongest weekly inflows in over three months,

driven by easing inflation in the U.S. and hopes for eventual rate cuts, while bonds also attracted investments. 

• The coffee markets faced another turbulent week as robusta rallied while arabica gave back its gains from the

prior week. Demand remains strong across the robusta space matching the flow of coffee from Vietnam while

increased crop flow from washed origins reaching peak harvest flow see stable to slow demand. 

• Average to above average rainfall volumes were reported across Brazil’s arabica growing regions supportive of

the 26/27 crop progress which is at its cherry filling stage. Over the next few weeks, continued rainfall and cooler

temperatures will be critical for good outturns and cherry filling.  

• Across the robusta growing regions of Vietnam over 98.4% of the 25/26 crop has been harvested. Coffee trees

have also started flowering following light rainfall over the last two weeks as well as induced flowering in farms

intercropped with durian using irrigation.

• Uganda’s election took place this week with incumbent President Museveni taking the lead in polls. However, to

avoid political unrest the country’s internet has been down, slowing business operations. Expectations are for the

internet to be restored hopefully over the weekend and for business operations to reopen across the country.   

Brazil

• Weather: Weather conditions remain good, with no immediate concerns with the exception of reported soil

moisture levels in parts of arabica growing regions seem low but if rains continue as forecast, this should improve.

• Economy/Politics: The BRL/USD traded sideways. A small spike occurred following political pressure on Brazil

due to its close ties with Iran but quickly faded.

• Export Market: Moderate business took place across both Conilon and Arabica grades for nearby positions.

Colombia: Parchment flow declined again this week in line with lower futures prices and the USD/COP exchange

rate. Weather conditions remain typical for the start of the year, although permanent alerts are in place for potential

landslides, especially in high-risk municipalities near water sources or on steep slopes. 

Costa Rica: The internal market remains stale, with farmers showing little interest in selling and little to no inquiries

from the external market. Transacted volumes are among the lowest seen for this time of year in recent years.

Guatemala: Coffee arrivals increased during the week, though commercial activity remained subdued amid

prevailing market conditions. As futures prices declined, differentials strengthened and deliveries slowed toward

week’s end. The harvest peak is expected to begin next week, which should support higher physical flow and

trading activity. Weather conditions remained typical for the dry season. Economic wise, Guatemala reported its

lowest inflation in 14 years at around 1.65%. The Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, reinforcing a stable

economic outlook and supporting investor confidence.

Honduras: Volumes in the internal market are expected to increase imminently, with purchasing currently

moderate and internal differentials softening as demand remains slow; buying is expected to roll to the K26 position

shortly. Shipments versus H26 are largely covered, crop progress is estimated at over 40%, and an oversupply of

coffee is evident, supporting expectations of TP soon. Weather remains mostly sunny, providing optimal conditions

for picking and drying. Roasters and importers remain quiet, with discussions focused on price ideas rather than

firm business, although increased Q2 sales are expected.

Africa/Papua New Guinea

Kenya: Pricing firmed considerably in this week’s auction across the full quality spectrum on the back of aggressive

dealer bidding in auction, the flow of coffee is very good with a record sized auction set for next week. However,

the market expectation is for a short and sharp crop, and exporters are scrambling to secure supply whilst the

coffee is available. Weather conditions remain hot and dry which will ensure any last pickings will be dried and

milled in the coming weeks.

Tanzania: This week, authorities reaffirmed political stability, with assurances that the October internet shutdown

will not be repeated, while fuel price adjustments remained moderate and are not expected to disrupt markets. In

the field, harvest activities in the north are largely complete under cool, dry conditions, with post-harvest

maintenance underway, while improved and consistent rainfall in the south is supporting fruit development and

active farm management. On logistics, congestion at Dar es Salaam port has worsened, with delays extending to

around 10 days and vessel turnaround times increasing, as operational pressure remains.

Ethiopia: There is an increase in the volume of parchment arriving in Addis, and samples of specialty coffee are

starting to show up in buyers’ labs. Overall export activity appears a bit slower than same time last year. 

PNG: Internal market flow remains limited, with only early ripening reported in parts of the upper highlands and

sporadic farmer selling of small parchment volumes, while most wet mills remain closed awaiting stronger cherry

flow in the coming weeks; dry mills continue to offer only small weekly parcels of green bean, and prices remained

unchanged. Wet-season conditions persist. In the external market, interest remains limited, with only modest

demand emerging for the new crop and some nearby on-the-fly shipments.