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“Déjà Brew: Tariffs Are Back”

• It was Brazil’s turn this week to be threatened with US tariffs. At 50%, this is much higher than Trump’s original April 2 rate of 10%, sending the Brazilian real sharply lower to 5.56, before recovering. Today’s latest news suggests Trump will speak with Lula on tariff negotiations, but this political game is difficult to watch and even harder to predict outcomes. 
• Coffee futures fell at the open after Trumps letter was sent, given that around 16% of all Brazilian coffee is exported to the USA but rallied later in the day. While Robusta continued to ease as has been the case for over two months now, Arabica subsequently shot up as front spreads began to tighten with a view that demand for exchange certified stocks from US roasters could increase.
• Coffee markets are now at the mercy of a brewing trade war between the world’s largest coffee exporter and the world’s largest buyer, and uncertainty will prevail until a negotiated solution is found.
• Weather in Brazil is dry and favourable for harvesting, with only light rains forecast next week. No cold spells are expected in the next 15 days and frost risk remains very low.
• Colombia’s June production fell 22% YoY to 909k bags according to FNC data, following excessive rains, marking the third consecutive month of decline. However, cumulative production for the FH of 2025 is 6.21 mio bags, up 7% YoY.
• Coffee prices in Vietnam edged down further this week on thin trading activity, the market feels tight as the crop season comes to an end. 
• In Indonesia’s Sumatra, about 75% of the robusta blossom has emerged in low to mid-altitude areas, and 40% in highland zones, showing normal crop development for the 2026/27 season. 
• Certified arabica stocks fell to 831,719 bags this week as robusta certified stocks rose to 5,298 lots.  

Brazil

• Local Market:

Arabica forward deliveries are starting to move and fresh sales increase daily. Conilon selling flow is increasing with the potential higher US tariffs in place. If theses 50% tariffs on Brazilian products to the US do go ahead, it is likely this will weaken Brazilian differentials further during the peak hedge flow this month, whether this happens yet remains to be seen.

• Weather: Sunny and ideal for drying coffee. No cold front is expected in the upcoming week.

• • Economy / Politics: BRL weakened on the back of the recent news on tariffs.
• Export Market: Cecafe is expected to release June figures in the coming days. July exports early numbers are currently behind June.

Colombia/Latin American Milds

• Colombia: Retention at farm level has increased slightly as growers await better prices. Though the last few weeks of the mitaca crop harvest have progressed better due to a slow down in rains.  Climatic conditions remain stable, with harvest activity now centred in Cauca, Nariño, Tolima, and Huila. June output totalled 909k bags, down 22% YoY due to excessive rains though above May’s 819k. FH 2025 production reached 6.21 mio bags (+7% YoY), with exports up 11% to 6.38 mio bags.

• Guatemala: Strong seismic activity was recorded this week, with quakes centred in Escuintla, Guatemala, and Sacatepéquez, felt nationwide and followed by ongoing aftershocks. Sporadic rains in coffee regions supported bean development, though overall conditions are expected to remain dry through next week.

• Costa Rica: Spot activity remains minimal, while local industry progresses in formalizing 2026 calendar year demand ahead of international buyers. The rainy season is off to a slow start, hindered by dry air and Saharan dust drifting into the National Territory.

• Peru: With the market drop, commercial activity in the country had come to a halt but is now slowly picking up, though not in sizeable volumes. Middlemen and coops were holding coffee, in hopes of a rally, which came this week. In the central region, less than a quarter of the crop is estimated to still be unsold.

Africa/Papua New Guinea

• Kenya: Early crop flow remains sluggish, largely due to unseasonably cold weather conditions. In addition, cooperatives are withholding parchment coffee in protest against proposed government reforms to the payment structure for coffee sales. Market prices remain elevated, driven by constrained supply and heightened price expectations from producers.

• Tanzania:  The harvest in Mbeya is entering its final phase, with some farmers expected to conclude picking by mid-July and the remainder by month-end. Deliveries to processing facilities are underway amid cool, stable and dry weather conditions. In Mbinga, the harvest is nearing its peak, with approximately 45% of the crop collected. The region is on track for peak activity later this month. Meanwhile, in the North, harvesting is progressing at a slower pace. All AMCOS are now operational, but cool temperatures are delaying both cherry ripening and drying, resulting in limited collections and minimal activity at the dry mills.

• Ethiopia: The financial year has come to an end in Ethiopia, with June seeing record export figures, ending the FY with over 460k MT exported over 12 months. Shortages of 20 ft containers continue to create shipment delays.

• PNG: Local prices have continued to soften, though some resistance persists—primarily among intermediaries, while the majority of farmers are actively offloading their remaining crop. Harvesting is approximately 80% complete across most provinces, with coffee from the more remote regions now entering the market. In the upper highlands, cherry volumes have declined slightly, accompanied by a long-anticipated drop in prices. Shipping and forwarding activity is projected to peak during this period and remain robust through September. Exports in June 2025 totaled 62,000 bags, down from 77,000 bags recorded in June 2024.

“Rain Delays”

• The macro melt down continues as the stop-start tariff war, and the huge uncertainty that comes with it, sent stock markets sharply lower. 
• Coffee prices were less volatile than the past few weeks, but higher gains were seen in robusta this week compared to arabica.
• The BRL has struggled to strengthen any further despite the weak US dollar, but that has not led to much physical business in Brazil, where producers remain well-sold.
• Brazil weather continues to be monitored closely; South of Minas and Cerrado have now gone 39 days without rainfall above 10mm, while Espírito Santo and Zona da Mata have endured 63 consecutive days of dryness.
• The latest forecast now suggests higher rainfall volumes expected between March 15th and 22nd mainly in Zona Da Mata. We note the forecast for rains are getting pushed later by a day while volumes nearby reduce. If these current forecasts for the next two weeks are realized, then rainfall in Cerrado, SdM and Mogiana will end 50% below the LT March average.
• Brazil’s green coffee export volume fell 11.7% in February YoY, with Cecafe attributing the decline mainly to less competitive prices when compared to other origins.
• Honduras’ crop advancement is over 80% and most of the coffee left is in dry parchment. Producers are tending to withhold sales in hopes of another market rise. 
• In Asia, farmers in Vietnam held off from selling this week despite healthy demand, while in Indonesia prices flipped into premium on scarce supplies.
• Certified arabica stocks stand at 802k bags as pending gradings decline, while robusta certified stocks are currently at 4,303 lots.  
• We estimate the net spec position in arabica is currently +38k lots, while that in Robusta is at +25k lots.

Brazil :

Local Market: liquidity remains limited, as only low volumes of current crop coffee remain available. Some good cup minus bicas with a high percentage of low grades seems to be offered in larger clips.  Conilon traded volumes are also slow, with the local industry focusing primarily on this type. Supermarket shelf prices remain elevated.

Economy / Politics:

• Conditions are persistently dry and warm. A few showers have occurred, with more forecast for the upcoming week. March, the last summer month, is expected to experience another moisture deficit, followed by the transition into the drier season.

Export Market:

• Market activity remains subdued, but inquiries for the new crop started to emerge.

Colombia/Latin American Milds

Colombia: Weather conditions remain stable, with favourable rainfall reported. Politically, tensions have escalated as the President demanded ministerial resignations following criticism of his administration’s inefficiency.  Controversy surrounds key figures, including Armando Benedetti, under investigation for illegal campaign financing, and newly appointed Foreign Minister Laura Sarabia, whose past scandals continue to stir discontent within the government.

Honduras: Farmers and intermediaries continue withholding stocks, still in hopes of a higher market. Weather patterns have remained erratic, fluctuating between periods of rainfall and cooler temperatures on some days, while others experience intense heat and prolonged sunlight.

Guatemala: The flow of coffee has begun to decline, with deliveries slowing over the past week. However, quality has shown improvement as beans now originate from higher-producing regions. Concerns have emerged regarding a rising incidence of roya in recent weeks, which may impact plant health and hinder the proper ripening of beans, potentially affecting overall yields.

Peru: In the northern region, the market continues to be dominated by lower-quality coffee, with yields ranging between 50% and 60%, while prices remain stable despite declining exchange rates. Exporters have yet to initiate purchases, as producers hold firm to high price expectations. In the central zone, coffee with yields below 60% has already been commercialized, though producers maintain last week’s price expectations despite market downturns. Overall, the market remains cautious, influenced by the limited coffee flow and ongoing price volatility.

Costa Rica: As the market retraces, demand has rebounced, with buyers willing to pay up. Though it continues to be on a hand-to-mouth basis. Meanwhile, demand for certified coffees, particularly RFA and Fairtrade, continues to surge to unprecedented levels. Weather conditions remain stable.

Africa/Papua New Guinea

• Kenya: Differentials have firmed considerably as the crop is coming to an early and rapid end. Quality is dropping at the auction with large volumes of Mbuni and low grades offered. Some significant rains came to the coffee growing regions on Monday which has triggered a flowering.
• Tanzania: After nearly a month-long hiatus, the auction held in Moshi on March 13, featured 4,000 bags, predominantly of FAQs. Approximately 42% of the coffee was sold on the auction floor, though we anticipate additional sales to be confirmed, given the competitive pricing. As the crop season draws to a close, increasing signs of aging are becoming evident in the remaining coffee. Additionally, we are observing a rising presence of grinders being offered for sale.
• Ethiopia: While exporters continue to report muted interest in washed coffees from the trade, the sale and flow of new crop naturals has significantly picked up. The Coffee Authority has reported shipment valued at USD 1.225 billion for the first 8 months of the fiscal year, to the end of February.
• PNG: Coffee activity is steadily expanding in the upper highlands, with a notable increase in cherry volumes reaching the wet mills. As local prices remain high, both farmers and collectors continue to be highly active. However, concerns persist regarding insect damage, which continues to result in significant off-grade losses. We anticipate that the main harvest will commence by the end of March, once the rains begin to subside. Throughout the week, local prices for all forms of coffee have seen an upwards trend.

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The Grand Old Duke of New York (Marches down and back up again)”

• This was a roller coaster of a week – arabica, having climbed to the highest since 1977 on Friday, collapsed 7% Monday and Tuesday, before steadily recovering back above 300c/lb. With this the futures arbitrage widened to 90c/lb towards the SH of the week- the highest in nearly two years amidst concerns over tighter arabica supplies

in Brazil.

• The record low Brazilian currency, along with fresh hedging from Vietnam, were some triggers that helped push prices lower on Monday.
• The BRL, after weakening to record lows on Friday, recovered to below 6 this week as the US dollar weakened on anticipation of a Fed rate cut next week.
• The immense coffee price volatility has put huge pressure on the entire supply chain, with notable financial stresses amidst soaring margin calls.
• Fedcafe said Colombia’s coffee crop will likely yield 13.6 mio bags in 2024, up 20% from last year due to improved pest controls and adaptations to climate change.
• Vietnam exported 1.2 mio tonnes of coffee in the Jan-Nov period of this year, down 14.3% YoY, according to the General Statistics Office. In November, 60,000 tonnes were exported, 49.1% lower than a year earlier.
• The EU commission agreed to delay the EUDR by 12 months, but with no changes to the existing rules.
• Certified arabica stocks remained stable at 897k bags, while robusta stocks fell to 3683 lots over the week.

ICE Robusta: Vietnamese selling on Monday arguably triggered the move lower, helping to drag arabica down with it. It was one of robusta’s biggest ever moves. After further selling on Tuesday the market consolidated.

Regional points:

Brazil:

• Local Market: The volumes sold by producers remain mediocre as the long holders are reluctant to give up their valuable positions. Conilon trades are even fewer than arabica with very marginal sales reported this week. Shipments remain strong but the market continues to face growing export backlogs in the port of Santos.
• Weather: Conditions remain stable with rains continuing this week across arabica’s growing regions.
• Economy / Politics: The BRL weakened to 6.0 BRL/USD. The government is widely criticized for its actions and has few allies, creating a sense of “governmental sabotage.”
• Export Market: Demand has decreased though Q2 coverage remains poor. Differentials are 10 cts/lb off the lows earlier this season and there are limited differential weakness into rallies, it is a long season to bridge to the new crop still.

Colombia:

Colombia: At the 93rd Coffee Congress in Colombia, the FNC CEO announced a 21% increase in cumulative production until November, reaching 13.41 million bags. He highlighted plans to rejuvenate 90,000 hectares in 2024, the highest in 11 years. Current weather conditions are conducive to the development of the upcoming fly crop and the replenishment of reservoir water levels.

Guatemala:

The flow of coffee is beginning to improve, with some mills starting their machine dryers. However, the volume remains lower compared to the previous crop. With better weatherpatterns, coffee flow is expected to improve next week. ANACAFE reported that Guatemala exported 3.128 million bags of 60 kg in the last crop, with 52.7% going to North America. Coffee sales brought in USD $898.8 million, making it the country’s top agribusiness export for the year.

Costa Rica:

Despite the market being at a high level, demand and differentials have remained steady. The weather has improved, with trade winds clearing rainy clouds, localizing rains to the Caribbean and North Atlantic regions. Cherry volume pickings are increasing due to recent sunny days. According to ICAFE, the 2024/2025 crop has closed the gap to -12.17% of countrywide received cherry year-to-date compared to 2023/2024, though it is still 2-3 weeks behind the last crop. Vessel availability is limited due to pre-Christmas seasonality.

Peru:

Currently, flowering is complete across all zones, and plants are in the grain setting and filling stages, thanks to consistent rainfall. However, some high-altitude areas are still experiencing flowering due to water stress and ongoing rains.

Africa/Papua New Guinea:

• Kenya: There was a predictable increase to differentials this week as the local market stayed firm. The flow continues to be strong, and quality has improved, with further improvement expected in the near term. The outturns so far have been remarkably bold in general. Following a week of heavy rains, the weather has now cleared, and we anticipate a promising flowering season ahead.
• Tanzania: This week’s auction in Moshi saw the offering of approximately 2,000 bags, predominantly consisting of FAQs. As the season draws to a close, we are beginning to observe tired lots being presented at auction. Prices experienced a slight decline, though the adjustment was not substantial. Differentials firmed slightly in response to continued active demand. Over 90% of the coffee was successfully sold yesterday; however, we expect to see the remaining aged and withdrawn lots return to auction next week. The next sale is scheduled for December 12th in Mbinga.
• Ethiopia: The weekly minimum price remains unchanged despite the market’s continued volatility. Demand for washed conventional qualities from the south appears to be weaker for this time of the year. Inquiries and interest for new crop are strong.
• PNG: The market environment has remained notably quiet, with fluctuations in futures having little impact on local pricing. Attention is focused on the start of the fly crop harvest. We anticipate that the small cherry flow from the upper highlands will gradually build through January and February. Parchment remains limited. Demand remains strong for both nearby and new crop offerings.

Vietnam:

The harvest is 40-50% complete, later than usual. The weather has been mostly dry with occasional scattered showers, and the quality of the  crop is promising. November exports totalled 43,000 MT, less than half of the usual volume and a record low.

Indonesia:

Weather conditions varied, ranging from normal to above normal across South Sumatera’s main coffee regions, with Bengkulu, Lampung, and Jambi also seeing above-normal rains. In Java,

the weather remained normal.

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Global green coffee exports jump 10.6% in 2023/24, says ICO – Reuters .

Global exports of green coffee increased 10.6% in the current 2023/24 coffee season (Oct-Sept) according to data until the end of July to 103.08 million bags, the International Coffee Organization said in a monthly report published on Thursday. Importers continue to buy much more than they did in the last season, trying to replenish stocks as well as anticipate loadings, fearing the new European Union anti-deforestation regulation that enters into force next year may affect trade, the ICO has said. Brazil and Colombia were responsible for most of the increase in exports, sharply boosting their shipments of arabica coffee, the type preferred by high-end cafes such as Starbucks. 

Regions

Brazil:

Local Market: Producers sell into rallies, local prices broke the BRL 1500 level for various qualities of arabicas, and close to that for conillon. The lofty arabica prices, combined with the cash shortage at exporter level made for a temporary drop in differentials as market participants were absent on the buying side.

Weather: The dry weather, combined with a lack of rainfall and drought conditions continues across most arabica and conilon regions such as Rondonia where irrigation is limited and the blossom at risk.

Export Market: Good external demand noted as roasters return from the holiday period and look to extend cover into the end of the year as well as nearby.

Exchange rate: 5.62

Colombia:

As the main crop is nearing, we start to see some initial pickings in the regions of Santander and Sierra Nevada. We expect the regions of Huila and Antioquia to kick off their harvest picking soon as well. Dry weather in Cundinamarca, Huila and Tolima while some showers have been seen in the northern part of the country and the Eje Cafetero.

Honduras:

On August 26th, San Pedro Sula hosted the inaugural event of the Honduran Coffee Expo. Trading activity remains low as we are in the off season still. Weather conditions remain stable with 34 degrees and scattered thunderstorms.

Ethiopia:

The rising internal market price for all qualities has been accompanied by a sharp drop in the volume of coffee being delivered from upcountry suppliers. Exporters with shorts to cover of commercial naturals are facing significant delays and shortage of supply even when they are willing to pay the record prices being asked. Most exporters point to Akrabis (local suppliers), accusing them of holding back the coffee.

PNG:

The slowing in coffee flow continues as we approach the end of the season. Local prices are elevated for the little volume still available. Focus is purely on getting parcels shipped to the EU by end of September ahead of the EUDR act.

Vietnam:

Local prices traded around 122,000 VND/kg, ignoring the market move higher as nearby demand remains thin. G2 is trading between +180 and +300 FOB for nearby shipments while new crop shipments show a wider range of prices. Rain continues to fall as we enter the traditionally wettest months of the season, which is beneficial for the upcoming crop. Currency: 24,870 VND/USD.

1. COFFEE MARKET OVERVIEW

“”RoBLASTa … again”

Another week, another record high for robusta futures, with the July futures contract closing at $4,471/t on the continued supply tightness. The strength of robusta spilled over into arabica which reached 7-week highs, propelled higher by fund buying.

Robusta Coffee Swings as Supply Fears Keep Volatility High – Bloomberg – Robusta coffee fluctuated below a recent high in London, as worries over global supplies keep volatility elevated. Futures have rallied this year — hitting the highest in data going back to 2008 — as production in key grower Vietnam suffered due to drought. While ongoing dryness there has worsened the supply outlook, assessing the overall damage to the 2024-25 crop remains challenging. Most-active futures hit a fresh high last week. They dropped as much as 2.7% on Monday before rebounding, helping to keep a 60-day measure of price swings near the highest since at least 2008.

Regions

Brazil:

Local Market: As arabica futures approached April highs combined with the weak BRL, Brazil saw fresh record outright prices traded, BRL 1,500 for extra fine arabica and BRL 1,300 for conilons. This helped to generate some local activity but generally, producers have remained disciplined in their selling. Harvesting is advancing with around 25% complete in arabica and 50% for the conilon crop. The industry is still standing by and waiting for the main selling pressure to arrive, potentially after the frost risk passes. Shipments remain strong.

Weather: Conditions remain favourable. Drier than usual which is good for harvesting but slowing decreasing soil moisture. No cold front on the horizon for now.

Export Market: Demand increasing for nearby shipments as industry cover remains low and shipping delays are creating tightness across destinations.

Exchange rate: 5.25 {deval 1.00%)

Colombia:

As futures strengthen, the internal flow is improving. Some better volumes changed hands internally, on basis FOB very little business was reported. The weather remains favourable for the main crop development.

Honduras:

No offers or business on standard grades. The focus is now fully on stock lots. Temperatures have remained at 35-40 degrees Celsius. There have been light rains in the country. It is predicted that this weekend rainfall will increase which is desperately needed to save the 24/25 crop potential.

Ethiopia:

The internal market in Ethiopia is seeing prices climb to new highs, as buyers chase commercial naturals and middlemen see an opportunity to squeeze exporters. Should this trend continue, the next few months will be chaotic and painful for exporters who are short and still looking to cover their commitments.

PNG:

A slight increase in arrivals in all regions resulting from the dryer weather last week and the elevation in local prices for parchment and green beans. Cherry prices stayed firm through the week. In most upper highland regions, the next two picks will see the end of the main harvest. Coffee from remote regions is still expected to arrive in the market. Wet weather in most coffee regions.

Vietnam:

Robusta: A slight increase in arrivals in all regions resulting from the dryer weather last week and the elevation in local prices for parchment and green beans. Cherry prices stayed firm through the week. In most upper highland regions, the next two picks will see the end of the main harvest. Coffee from remote regions is still expected to arrive in the market. Wet weather in most coffee regions.

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1. COFFEE MARKET OVERVIEW

Market rally takes a coffee break”

After last week’s rally, Arabica consolidated lower this week as certified stocks built. Robusta followed suit, but to a lesser extent, with cash differentials – particularly in Asia – stubbornly high. The new year began with the same impetus as last year ended, with continued volatility.

In Asia, Robusta differentials remain exorbitant on scarce supplies – the only way to ration demand is by raising prices. Indonesian robusta differentials soared ~$100 on last week as the industry awaits the peak harvest period.

Coffee Prices Fall on Projected Surplus for 2024-25 – May arabica coffee today is down -1.15 (-0.63%), and ICE robusta coffee is down -4 (-0.12%). Coffee prices are lower today after Rabobank predicted a coffee surplus of 4.5 million bags for the upcoming 2024-25 marketing year, up sharply from the 500,000 bag surplus projected for 2023-24. Coffee prices were undercut by last week’s rain in Brazil.  Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that Brazil’s Minas Gerais region received 45.7 mm of rainfall in the past week, or 107% of the historical average.  Minas Gerais accounts for about 30% of Brazil’s Arabica crop

Regions

Brazil:

Local industry remains buying hand-to-mouth with better volume trading as the market rallied at the start of the week. Shipments continue strong although largely for Robusta, as February arabica green bean shipments, as reported by Cecafe were below expectations, reflecting congestion at the port of Santos and continued rollover of shipments into the following month which may see Arabica shipments in March increasing.

Colombia:

Another quiet week, little business took place, and the industry awaits the arrival of the “mitaca” crop to flow. The Union of Colombia Coffee  farmers, a movement that includes 11 different Provinces, protested in front of the FNC’s HQ. They announced they would go on strike on April 28 if no agreement is made. The farmers union argues they have been losing money growing coffee and are looking to negotiate for stable coffee prices, higher taxes on coffee imports, and the change in the purchase yield for parchment that was modified around 6 months ago.

Honduras:

Mainstream business remains lack lustre. More inquiries are coming for the lower-grade qualities. Internal prices are still too high to trigger business.

Tanzania:

An auction was held in Moshi this week, and offered 5,000 bags of freshly stored coffee, predominantly FAQ grade. We expect only 80% of the coffee will be sold, with prices rallying due to increased demand from a few buyers. This trend set a tone for higher reserve prices. The next auction is scheduled to be in Moshi but to be determined when. The port congestion remains a significant challenge, with approximately 20 vessels currently anchored at the outer anchorage, awaiting to berth. Moreover, vessels are now only open for two days, exacerbating the issue as queues are getting bigger.

India:

Indian coffee exporters fear Robusta price rally could lead to flight of customers to other origins – Business Line – Indian coffee exporters fear that the current surge in Robusta prices could lead to flight of customers to other cheaper origins in Africa and Asia. Global prices of Robusta’s are at a three-decade high on weather induced supply issues in top producer Vietnam. The Indian Robusta’s are expensive over other origins as they command a significant premium over the terminal prices in London. Premiums for the Indian Robusta’s Parchment AB are currently hovering around $700-750 per tonne over the London terminal prices.

PNG:

A slight improvement in flow of both parchment and cherry, this week in the Western Highlands. Other neighbouring provinces are yet to see the new crop arrivals. The local prices are on the rise because of the delayed crop and exporters chasing any coffee available in the market.

Vietnam:

Upcountry prices shrugged off the collapse in robusta futures from the highs and continued to trade above 92,000 VND/kg causing another 50-100 USD leap in replacement differentials with exporters covering shorts. G2 is trading around K + 600/+650 FOB in bulk. Industry demand is notably weaker at these premiums as forward buying decisions are put on hold where it is harder to find offers and mainly immediate needs are covered where there is slightly better liquidity.

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1. COFFEE MARKET OVERVIEW

“Have a Fab-brew-lous New Year!”

The New Year began with the same impetus as last year ended, with continued volatility.

Contributing to the choppiness has been the rise in geopolitical risks, which have led to shipping companies raising freight prices following attacks in the Red Sea that have forced vessels carrying coffee to take detours.

ICE Arabica: Arabica performed strongly over the Christmas period before ending the year with a bang on the final trading day, losing nearly 10c. With many market participants on holiday, market conditions were thin and volatile.

Regions:

Brazil:

Local Market: Brazil is slowly coming back from holidays with activities picking up day by day. Producers still do not want to sell any sizeable clips and focus on bits and pieces only. Replacement differentials are about 4 cents off the lows seen 2 weeks ago.

Weather: Widespread precipitation took off the drought nervousness.

Export Market: Fill in demand for nearby shipments seen. Some larger string interests coming in as well.

Exchange rate: 4.95 (deval 1.50%).

Colombia:

Quiet start to the year, small volumes traded so far in both internal and external markets.

December production has been reported 24% higher than the same month in 2022. Climatic conditions remain the same as last month.

Honduras:

High coffee flows with more availability from producers and coops. Purchasing remains competitive with intermediaries buying most of the coffee available, several exporters are not buying now. The FTO business is mainly focused on the US market, FLO international price hikes have negatively impacted interest in the EU. Sunny weather in most of the country has helped accelerate coffee picking.

Tanzania:

No auctions took place this week. Auctions will potentially resume on January 18 2024, however, it is yet to be confirmed. High demand continues, leading to consistently busy ports with fully booked slots and vessels anchored outside due to congestion. Mills have ceased operations and are currently focused on transporting coffee to buyers. Both South and North Regions experienced increased rainfall frequency this week compared to previous weeks, positively impacting crop development.

PNG:

Quiet week over the festive period and low trading activity in most regions as export and process businesses were closed this week. Crop development continues in line with the expectations in most of the reports. Fly crop picking should begin in the month ahead in some areas of the upper Highlands. Shipment of coffee is ongoing to meet committed sales. Normal weather throughout the week.

Vietnam:

Robusta: FAQ is trading between 68,000 and 69,000 VND/kg in thin volume to the highest bidders. The market is quite oversold therefore shorts struggle to cover their commitments as prices have moved higher and farmers are quite relaxed hoping for further gains. G2 is trading around H+120/+150 FOB in bulk. Industry well covered up to March/April and start looking to cover through to Oct/Nov shipments while exporters focus on nearby shipments. The weather is excellent for drying coffee. Currency: VND 24,350.

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